The Effect of Fertility Rate on the Economic Growth-Iraq as an Example for the Period of 2007-2022.

الملخص

 Every country due to the process of development will experience changes in some social structures. One of them is the fertility rate. Fertility rate can affect growth in both directions positive and negative. Iraq is no exception in this regard. It has many economic problems such as high rates of unemployment versus low rates of growth. Focusing on the last 15 years (2007-2022) the objective of this article is mainly to reveal the effect of the fertility rate on economic growth (GDP per Capita as a proxy-GDPPC) in Iraq, also to predict their trends in the future. For this purpose, the ARDL model of regression has been applied and GCF, GEXP, and COVID-19 variables are also included in the regression model. Findings show that fertility has negative effects on the GDPPC in the short run but positive effects in the long run. GCF has a positive effect in the short-run, GEXP has a positive effect in the short-run but its effect is negative in the long-run. GDPPC and FR have an opposite trend in forecasting prediction. The paper concludes that women’s empowerment is necessary in order to control the fertility rate. This needs government intervention at least through providing more opportunities to access education and healthcare services alongside offering financial support. Future work is recommended in further detail with different models and measurements.